Recently, Michael Walz, the future national security advisor to newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump, stated that to conduct substantive negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine, direct contacts with both sides need to be established, particularly with the Kremlin. In an interview with UNIAN, Taras Zahorodniy, managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group, elaborated on how negotiations will unfold, whether Trump will end the war between Ukraine and Russia this year, and if the U.S. will pressure Ukraine to lower the mobilization age.
Some Ukrainians were excited about the prospect of reclaiming Crimea in just two weeks, while now some hope that newly elected President Donald Trump will end the war between Russia and Ukraine by 2025. How realistic are these plans?
He will not end anything. It all depends on Putin, who does not want that. One shouldn’t believe anyone. Faith should be in oneself, in one’s army, and in one’s own missiles. Only this can restore all territories.
During the presidential campaign, Trump promised that if elected, he would manage to conclude a peace agreement before his inauguration, that is, by January 20, 2025. Recently, his advisor Michael Walz stated that ending the Russian-Ukrainian war requires time and effort. What went wrong?
Forget everything Trump and the Republicans said about Ukraine during the campaign. It had nothing to do with our country. All those words were aimed against the Democratic opponents and American voters. After the elections, everything starts from a clean slate.
Now it will be real life – they will begin gathering intelligence, forming a team, trying to understand where they stand. And then they will clash with Putin, who will tell them his "historical" excursions about the Pechenegs and Rurikids. He will tell Trump that he wants NATO’s military infrastructure dismantled and that Sweden and Finland should exit the Alliance. Putin will put forward unrealistic demands that he has publicly stated. Trump will look at this and say: "Well, fine. Then we will go with Plan B – Pompeo’s plan." The former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggested that Ukraine should build significant defense forces to prevent a new Russian attack, that no one should recognize the Russian occupation of any Ukrainian territories, that Crimea should be demilitarized, that Ukraine should join NATO as soon as possible, and that the European Union should quickly accept Ukraine and help modernize its economy.
We must understand that the U.S. will not reduce assistance. No one intends to abandon Ukraine. Support will continue at the level provided by U.S. President Joe Biden, whose term is ending, or even more.
Trump tells everyone that he is not the one wanting a meeting with Putin; it is the Russian dictator who initiates it. Thus, the newly elected U.S. president places Putin in a subordinate position, which greatly "irritates" the Russian leader because he desires equal partnership agreements and discussions. And Trump essentially responds to him: "I am the boss here. And who are you?"
How quickly could a meeting between Trump and Putin take place?
It doesn’t matter when it takes place. The main issue is that there is no subject for conversation. There is nothing to negotiate about. Putin, although a KGB officer, is an idiot – he has already laid all his cards on the table, that is, his negotiation position, when he claimed that for a ceasefire, Ukraine must leave Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Donetsk regions.
What could become a bargaining chip during this conversation?
Notice how Trump conducts negotiations – he says nothing specific, corners the Russians, and practically gives them six months to rectify the situation. The newly elected U.S. president wants to be a peacemaker, not to create a new Afghanistan, as he criticizes Biden. His position is to stop at the line of demarcation and sit down at the negotiating table. But the Russians do not want to do that. For Trump, it is clear that if they don’t, it will be time to activate Plan B – we will "take you down".
What can Putin offer Trump? The Russians were expelled from Syria, meaning they can no longer threaten Israel, which would lead to war in the Middle East. The Russians have always used this to blackmail the U.S. Putin will also beg for sanctions to be lifted so he can sell more oil. Then Trump will reply: "Why should I do this? I have boys in Texas, and we want to sell oil and gas to Europe ourselves." The U.S. has grand plans to push Russia out of the oil and gas market in Europe and sell everything themselves.
What else can Putin offer? To recognize the annexation of four Ukrainian regions? But that will never happen. On what grounds? It’s a deadlock everywhere, and Russia has nothing to "trade". Even the narrative they always played and pressured Biden with at the start of the full-scale invasion – to hand Ukraine over to Russia and become allies of the U.S. in the war against China – is no longer valid. Because Trump will ask what they will fight with, given Russia's enormous dependence on China. And to restore the power that existed as of 2021, a lot of oil is needed. And here we again bump into the "boys from Texas".
What style of dialogue and emotional tone can be expected in a conversation between Trump and Putin?
There will be no emotions. Trump is a person who has gone through the real estate business in New York. He will count resources, asking, "What do you have?" "Putin, what can you specifically guarantee? Look, on your territory – Kursk – there are foreign troops, your country is being "taken down" by drones every day, and you can do nothing, while your generals are being slaughtered like pigs in Moscow," – these will be the specific questions to Putin. Americans are like that. They will not switch to lyrical discussions. And Putin has nothing. He can threaten with nuclear weapons, but the U.S. has those too. And Trump is the kind of person who might order a strike with that weapon on the Kremlin. Republicans are the kind of guys who sometimes shoot first and ask questions later.
Walz says that Ukraine must understand that it will have to say goodbye to Crimea. Is that true?
Well, that’s a figurative expression. These are all negotiation matters. Putin wants Americans to recognize Crimea as Russian and sign a document. But that will never happen. Let’s recall Pompeo’s plan, which states that Ukraine must be given everything to reach the line of February 24, 2022. We are in a panic that Crimea is to be left to Russia. But... When Ukraine is armed and reaches the border with Crimea, who says that the "Abrams" or "Leopard" tanks won’t malfunction and drive into Crimea? So who will stop Ukraine? No one. Let’s say it just happened that way.
Are you an optimist? Do you believe we will return to the borders of 1991?
I tell everyone that the chances for Ukraine to regain the borders of 1991, including Crimea, are increasing sharply every day. Now Putin will "bully" Trump, diminishing his authority in the world. This will be emphasized by Zelensky, assuring that he wants negotiations, but Putin does not want to meet in Trump’s presence. And the Russian dictator truly does not want such a meeting. Zelensky can play on emotions, suggesting that Putin doubts that Trump is the coolest in the world, which he is already demonstrating in interviews for foreign media.
Putin does not want to sit at the negotiating table with Ukraine. He wants to negotiate with the U.S. about Ukraine. And that will not happen.
European partners are concerned that negotiations will be held without Europe and Ukraine. What is actually happening?
One must get used to Trump's negotiating style. All these tales that Trump is insane and unpredictable are probably spread by him. The newly elected U.S. president will demand NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.
They will probably settle for 3-4%. He will shift the financing of the war and the Ukrainian army to the Europeans but will gladly allow them to purchase American weapons with that money. The fact that Europeans will be worried is their problem.
Representatives of the Republican Party have started talking about the need to lower the mobilization age in Ukraine to 18 years. Is the U.S. suggesting that instead of providing weapons, we "fight with people"?
This is a debatable issue. We should not take everything they say as truth. The U.S. cannot not provide weapons and suggest increasing the mobilization resource. We are not going to stop Russian tanks with people. We don’t need that because it is a losing strategy. Give Ukraine F-16 fighters with decent radars and missiles that can shoot down Russian planes. And then the Russian offensive will stop. With the West, negotiations are always necessary. We need to learn from Israel, which quarrels with the U.S. once a month; they have their own opinion and argue its correctness, plus their own military-industrial complex, demonstrating strength, which is why the U.S. considers them.
Some of Trump’s