President Donald Trump of the United States possesses the means to compel Russian leader Vladimir Putin to swiftly end the war initiated against Ukraine. This perspective was shared by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor of practice at the Lester Crown Leadership Institute and president of the Yale School of Management, in an article for Time.
"I believe Russia will face significant challenges... I think Putin is destroying Russia," Trump stated during a press conference in the Oval Office on his first day as president.
Sonnenfeld pointed out that Trump is correct, as the war-driven economy under Putin is draining the vitality of the country across all sectors.
"Putin has reduced reinvestment in his industrial base and has taken control of many private enterprises, consuming its once-powerful industrial strength... Russia is in serious trouble as its economy collapses; Putin is wrecking Russia. More importantly, Trump's return could push the Russian economy off a cliff, potentially delivering a fatal blow to Putin's faltering regime," the professor noted.
According to him, with the proper application of sanctions, the Russian economy could be hanging by a thread by Easter.
"The idea that Trump's return could end Putin's rule seemed inconceivable just a few weeks ago. Many Ukraine supporters openly feared that Trump might impose a bad peace deal on Ukraine, tantamount to capitulation…," the publication states.
However, as Sonnenfeld suggested, it appears that Trump has altered his stance on Putin once he realized how weak the Russian economy truly is:
"Simply put, the Russian economy is collapsing—Putin is cannibalizing the productive economy to fund his military machine. If Putin loses the faucet of unexpected oil revenue that has supported him for the past three years, his regime will almost certainly fall. Putin has already depleted Russia's rainy-day reserves, exhausting its once-impressive foreign currency reserves, and no one wants to finance the Russian government’s deficit by purchasing unwanted Russian bonds."
As the professor added, oil revenues are a significant deterrent for the Russian economy, and Trump has recognized the power of this lever:
"The prospects for Russian oil sales are now entirely different, and a direct economic collapse of Russia now seems much more likely. With Trump's promises to lower oil prices and increase U.S. domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day, the world will no longer need Russian oil in the same way."
Sonnenfeld expressed confidence that Putin will lose money when oil prices fall below current levels. And if Trump imposes any additional sanctions and export restrictions on Russian oil companies, Putin will be practically "begging for relief":
"Trump has the opportunity to puncture Putin's propaganda balloon and suffocate the Russian economy to the point of collapse if he chooses to do so."
It is worth noting that earlier reports indicated that following extensive U.S. sanctions against Russia's oil trade, the volume of Russian oil exports by sea has fallen more sharply than at any time since November 2024. It was noted that the decline in Russian exports has resulted in the four-week average remaining below 3 million barrels per day, approaching a 16-month low.