Over the past year, the number of Ukrainian refugees has increased by 300,000, reaching 5.2 million people. As of November 2024, 5.2 million Ukrainians were abroad due to the war, which is 300,000 more than in January 2024. This information was reported by the Center for Economic Strategy.
It is noted that 3.7 million of them left Ukraine through western borders; approximately 239,000 Ukrainians (0.2 million) traveled to Europe via Russia or Belarus. Additionally, according to the UN, another 1.3 million Ukrainians became refugees in Russia or Belarus.
According to the CES study, fewer Ukrainians plan to return, with only 43% of Ukrainian refugees currently willing to do so. This figure was previously 52% (January 2024) and 74% (December 2022).
"Our estimates suggest that even after the war ends, between 1.7 to 2.7 million Ukrainians may remain abroad. This will significantly impact the economy, which could lose between 5.1% to 7.8% of GDP annually," the report states.
The vast majority of refugees are women (most aged 35-44) and children. According to Eurostat, the highest number of Ukrainian refugees is in Germany (27%) and Poland (23%). Meanwhile, since January 2024, the proportion of adult men abroad has significantly increased:
"Since the end of 2022, the structure of Ukrainian refugees abroad has undergone considerable changes. While at the beginning of the war women and children made up the overwhelming majority of refugees, the share of adult men has significantly increased. Although relative majority (44%) are still adult women, the share of adult men reached 27% by December, up by 9 percentage points compared to January 2024," noted senior economist at CES Daria Mikhailishina.
Experts point out that for most Ukrainian refugees (53%), the incentive to return is the definitive end of the war along with the restoration of air travel.
Other significant factors include: a higher standard of living in Ukraine than currently (e.g., in education, healthcare, fighting corruption, etc.) - 46%; the opportunity to find well-paying jobs - 33%; cessation of hostilities and airstrikes in the city they plan to return to - 31%; and the end of fighting in their home region - 24%.
Ukrainians Leaving for Abroad
Doctor of Economic Sciences and expert on migration policy and financial programs for migrants and diaspora Andrey Haidutsky reported that the process of Ukrainians leaving for abroad has not ceased to this day. According to the expert, primarily older individuals who find it difficult to integrate abroad will return to Ukraine, along with some youth. He added that a significant portion of Ukrainian students who have left for studies are unlikely to return in the near future.
Head of the sociological group "Rating" Alexey Antipovich shared that during sociological surveys, about 7% of Ukrainians declare a desire to move abroad in the near future. Among the youth, this figure is twice as high at 15%.